New professions and the labour market: data from global research
Global research on the future of the profession shows the dynamic changes that will take place in the labor market in the coming years. In particular, the development of new technologies, automation and artificial intelligence will require specialized technical skills, especially in areas such as data analysis, artificial intelligence, robotics and cyber security. At the same time, the forecasts highlight the importance of soft competences such as creative thinking, talent management and interpersonal skills, which will become key in the professions related to sustainability and digital marketing.
Data on the professions of the future (forecasts for 2023-2027) provided by a study by the World Economic Forum (Future of Jobs Report 2023), can be divided into professions that require soft and hard competencies. A group that unites strict minds will be able to count on work in specialist positions in the following areas:
- artificial intelligence and machine learning
- data analysis
- cybersecurity
This job requires the ability to interpret large data sets, knowledge of programming, algorithms and security protocols. These are the professions that we expected in the forecasts due to the progressive development of new technologies, but the work in the position also draws attention Renewable Energy Engineer, which requires some competence in design thinking and environmental engineering.
Professions that require soft skills, which we usually refer to as interpersonal skills, creative thinking and adaptation to changing conditions, are specializations in the following areas:
- sustainable development
- digital marketing and e-commerce
- talent management
Occupations at risk of elimination (from the point of view of automation and the transfer of services to the Internet in the form of online services):
- Administrative and executive works
- Data entry workers
- Cashiers and ticket sellers
- Postal workers
- Bank cashiers and related professions
- Shop Salesmen
- Telemarketers
- Customer information and customer service staff
- Business Services and Administration Managers
- Direct sales workers, street and news vendors and related employees
The most sought-after professions by 2030:
- Process Automation Specialists — extreme demand: 42%.
- Professions related to automation, robotics and the Internet of Things (IoT) — extreme demand: 30%.
- Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR) specialists — extreme demand: 27%.
- Specialists in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning — extreme demand: 25%.
- Information Security Specialists — extreme demand: 22%, high demand: 41%.
- Green competitions (specialists in renewable energy, nuclear energy, waste recovery) — extreme demand: 19%, high demand: 36%.
- Risk analysis and assessment specialists — extreme demand: 15%, high demand: 36%.
Report Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages (McKinsey & Company, 2017) provided interesting scenarios that point to potentially lost or gained occupations by 2030. This forecast focuses both on professions that require strict skills, as well as on a few that are associated rather with management, teaching or negotiation skills.
It should be emphasized that the methodology of the study was based on predictions of how new technologies and artificial intelligence will affect the labor market in the future. For this purpose, 800 professions from 46 countries representing 90% of the world's GDP (including the countries of the European Union, which means that Poland was part of this study) were studied. First of all, specific areas of the profession were studied and which of them would be able to be automated. Of all the occupations covered by the study, 60% of them had 30% areas that could be done with technology.
Automation-related changes confirm the information in the report A new future of work: A race to deploy AI and raise skills in Europe and beyond (McKinsey & Company):
Up to 30 percent of working hours could be automated by 2030, powered by generative AI, leading to millions of necessary job changes.
Part of the predictions from the study Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages coincides with those of the World Economic Forum: the results indicate the popularity of professions related to AI and cybersecurity, as well as data analytics and advanced manufacturing engineers.
Professions in the areas of technology and production are probably not a surprise to anyone. However, a much more interesting, and even less certain, area is the one that requires a more “humanistic” approach, not always easy to calculate in excel.
The McKinsey & Company study predicts that by 2030 there will be at least such professions as:
- Digital Transformation Managers
- Sustainability Specialists
- Coaches and Employee Development Specialists
- Mental Health Professionals
Some of these professions exist in different, similar forms today, and we can observe how they evolve. Particularly important and needed professions today seem to be those related to climate change and the protection of mental health. They relate to topics that today have to be considered in most large organizations. Sustainability is necessary not only for corporate PR reasons, but also because of the many top-down regulations, e.g. on production and transport. It is therefore impossible to underestimate the need for specialists who will develop and implement specific, green strategies. Such a profession requires not only negotiation skills, but also environmental awareness, the ability to convey knowledge, which usually combines several areas: ecology, politics, business and marketing.
Mental health professionals are people who are tasked with maintaining the mental well-being of employees, resolving conflicts, maintaining good relationships in the company, working with stress and well-being. The mental health department is particularly relevant from the point of view of new health and safety practices.
The demand for occupations related to emotional skills is confirmed by the 2024 McKinsey & Company report. The demand for social and emotional skills could increase by 11% in Europe and 14% in the United States. This increase is due to greater demand for roles that require interpersonal empathy and leadership skills. These skills are key in healthcare and management professions in a changing economy that requires greater adaptability and flexibility.
Unfortunately, the results cited in the report continue to indicate a decreasing demand for office workers and customer service departments. Thus, the need to retrain or change industries increases, which increases the importance of reskilling and upskilling, which will allow employees to acquire the new skills necessary in a dynamically changing work environment.
Factors influencing the need for new competences and professions: European data
The dynamics of technological change affect the pace of our lives. The likelihood that we will have to retrain at least once in our lifetime is high — more than half of UK employers predict. A study by Universities UK on the labour market in the UK shows that 60% of employers consider hybrid and remote work models to be crucial for recruiting talent from outside large urban centres. It can therefore be concluded that this form of work presents an opportunity to increase the number of offers available in different parts of the country.
The new information in the Universities UK study is that of the demand for workers in the health and education sectors by 2035. It is estimated that around one million new medical workers and healthcare professionals will be needed in the UK, as well as one million teachers and education workers, including academic lecturers and teachers in higher education.
A realistic assessment of what the labour market will look like in the future, taking into account the uncertainty that accompanies it and the current pace of change, has been developed by the Employment Institute at the University of Warwick. The researchers conducted an analysis, the result of which is a report The Skills Imperative 2035: Essential skills for tomorrow's workforce: Revised long-run labour market and skills projections for the UK.
The main objective of the projections was to examine the demand for skills, as measured by employment across occupations and skill levels, while taking into account the supply side. The forecasts revealed key factors influencing the changing demand for new skills locally, which turned out to be close to the needs at the national level. Thanks to this, the forecast can also partly refer to the situation in other European countries.
Factors that influence the need and type of new skills are:
- Technological changes: the pace of their implementation in the workplace, the increase in the share of AI, automation, information and communication technology (ICT). All these needs cause an overall increase in the demand for IT skills, as they affect the way products and services are manufactured.
- Changing patterns of consumer demand and competition: They increase the emphasis on customer service skills.
- structural changes requiring management skills: this need arises from increasing globalisation, an extended supply chain and subcontracting.
- Increasing the flexibility of the labour market: changes in work practices (introduction of team or cellular production in engineering, call center or financial services).
- legislative changes: regulations, for example on environmental issues, have influenced skills requirements mainly in the public sector, in the construction sector and in the area of finance.
According to the analysis Skills Intelligence: Future Jobs in Europe carried out by CEDEFOP (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training) for EU Member States, it appears that the occupational groups most vulnerable to replacement are:
- Professional specialists (requiring specialized qualifications in their field)
- Professionals (professions requiring specialization in narrower areas such as: IT, digital marketing)
- Service and sales staff
This is due to the increasing automation and the development of artificial intelligence.
The analysis identifies and forecasts occupational trends until 2035, taking into account the growth and decline of employment in the countries of the European Union.
The largest employment growth in 2022-2035 is projected in countries such as Malta, Ireland and Luxembourg (24.4%), while the smallest in Bulgaria and Lithuania (-10.8%). In Poland, average employment growth is expected at 4.8%.
These data are, of course, only a guideline, based on today's information, and therefore a margin of error must be taken into account when interpreting them. Especially since not in all sectors of the economy it was possible to calculate forecasts with full accuracy.
Areas of competence and potential professions: data from Polish research.
Polish research on competences of the future provides valuable information on skills that will be key in a changing job market.Forecasts include both cognitive competence, such as interdisciplinarity and the ability to analyze risk, and social skills such as working in virtual teams or social entrepreneurship. The professions of the future require flexibility and the ability to adapt to new technologies and social challenges.
The Future Competence Observatory of the Future Industry Platform Foundation has published the Empirical Research Report on Competences and Professions of the Future (2022), which specifies the most important areas for the competences of the future. To each of these competencies can be attributed exemplary professions in which they will be of particular importance.
Area of cognitive (cognitive) competence
In-depth inference
Data Analyst: It draws conclusions from big data, looks for patterns invisible at first glance.
Psychotherapist: Understands deep processes and the importance of human behavior and emotions.
Interdisciplinarity
Scientist/University Employee: It brings together expanding and pervasive fields of science that require the fusion of diverse issues and the creation of interdisciplinary studies.
Biomedical Engineer: It combines areas of engineering, biology and medicine to design medical devices.
Ability to analyze and assess risk
Cybersecurity Specialist: Analyzes digital security risks and assesses the risks to IT systems.
Risk Manager: Creates logical and predictive risk assessments in companies in the areas of finance, environment and occupational safety.
Area of technical competence and information and knowledge management
Ability to manage information overload
Information Analyst: It filters large amounts of data, finds valuable information.
Ability to integrate robotic workstations
Mechatronic technician: Works on human-machine contact, integrating robotic devices into the production process.
Area of Social Competence
Social intelligence
Social Activist: It works to improve the social, political or ecological situation by building social movements and involving communities on important issues. They organize social campaigns, cooperate with non-governmental organizations.
Ability to work effectively in virtual teams
Project Manager: Effectively manages project teams using virtual tools and platforms.
Social entrepreneurship
NGO Project Coordinator (NGO Project Coordinator): She is involved in the implementation of projects aimed at solving social problems in non-governmental organizations.
summary
Global, European and Polish analyses highlight the growing demand for technology, health and education professionals. Technical, analytical and social competencies will be of the greatest importance, and many professions will be eliminated by automation and artificial intelligence. Although the labor market will undergo major changes, many of the current competencies will allow retraining for new, dynamically emerging professions. Flexibility, adaptability and continuous acquisition of new qualifications will be key in the coming years.
Sources:
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2023.pdf
https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/a-new-future-of-work-the-race-to-deploy-ai-and-raise-skills-in-europe-and-beyond#/
https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/what-we-do/policy-and-research/publications/jobs-future
https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/tools/skills-intelligence/trend-focus/future-jobs#1
